Verifying compliance with ballast water standards: a decision-theoretic approach

Abstract

We construct credible intervals to estimate the mean organism (zooplankton and phytoplankton) concentration in ballast water via a decision-theoretic approach. To obtain the required optimal sample size, we use a total cost minimization criterion defined as the sum of the sampling cost and the Bayes risk either under a Poisson or a negative binomial model for organism counts, both with a gamma prior distribution. Such credible intervals may be employed to verify whether the ballast water discharged from a ship is in compliance with international standards. We also conduct a simulation study to evaluate the credible interval lengths associated with the proposed optimal sample sizes.