Abstract
Aging societies have given rise to important challenges in the field of health insurance. Elderly policyholders need to be provided with fair premiums based on their individual health status, whereas insurance companies want to plan for the potential costs of tackling lifetimes above mean expectations. In this article, we focus on a large cohort of policyholders in Barcelona (Spain), aged 65 years and over. A shared-parameter joint model is proposed to analyse the relationship between annual demand for emergency claims and time until death outcomes, which are subject to left truncation. We compare different functional forms of the association between both processes, and, furthermore, we illustrate how the fitted model provides time-dynamic predictions of survival probabilities. The parameter estimation is performed under the Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
Keywords
- Joint models
- panel count data
- left truncation
- Bayesian framework
- health insurance
Rights
Copyright
From February 2013 articles are under a Creative Commons license: CC BY-NC-ND You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work), you may not use the work for commercial purposes and you may not alter, transform, or build upon the work.
