Abstract
A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the spatial bioclimatic probability distribution of each bioclimatic index, which allows researchers to obtain the probability of each location belonging to different bioclimates. The methodology is evaluated on two indices in the Island of Cyprus.
Keywords
- Bioclimatology
- geostatistics
- parallel computation
- spatial prediction
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From February 2013 articles are under a Creative Commons license: CC BY-NC-ND You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work), you may not use the work for commercial purposes and you may not alter, transform, or build upon the work.
