Abstract
Our objective in this paper is to model the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia (Spain) and analyse the effect of vaccination strategies from a health-economic point of view. Compartmental mathematical models based on differential equations are commonly used in epidemiology to both understand the underlying mechanisms that influence disease transmission and analyse the impact of vaccination programs. However, a recently proposed Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model in discrete-time provided an improved and more natural description of disease dynamics. In this work, we propose an extension of that stochastic model that allows us to simulate and assess the effect of a vaccination strategy that consists on vaccinating a proportion of newborns.
Keywords
- Infectious diseases
- respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
- discrete-time epidemic model
- stochastic compartmental model
- Bayesian analysis
- intervention strategies
Rights
Copyright
From February 2013 articles are under a Creative Commons license: CC BY-NC-ND You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work), you may not use the work for commercial purposes and you may not alter, transform, or build upon the work.
