Occupancy as a surrogate for abundance estimation

In many monitoring programmes it may be prohibitively expensive to estimate the actual abundance of a bird species in a defined area, particularly at large spatial scales, or where birds occur at very low densities. Often it may be appropriate to consider the proportion of area occupied by the species as an alternative state variable. However, as with abundance estimation, issues of detectability must be taken into account in order to make accurate inferences: the non–detection of the species does not imply the species is genuinely absent. Here we review some recent modelling developments that permit unbiased estimation of the proportion of area occupied, colonization and local extinction probabilities. These methods allow for unequal sampling effort and enable covariate information on sampling locations to be incorporated. We also describe how these models could be extended to incorporate information from marked individuals, which would enable finer questions of population dynamics (such as turnover rate of nest sites by specific breeding pairs) to be addressed. We believe these models may be applicable to a wide range of bird species and may be useful for investigating various questions of ecological interest. For example, with respect to habitat quality, we might predict that a species is more likely to have higher local extinction probabilities, or higher turnover rates of specific breeding pairs, in poor quality habitats.